How does Venoy impact 2008?

I think the main fallout from signing Venoy is that Romar may be conceding the Jrue Holiday sweepstakes. If I had to guess, I would say Jrue is going to go to Arizona or UW. He fits into a fast paced system well, but both teams are in similar roster situations. UCLA already has two PG commitments in 2008, Texas feels like a longshot, and North Carolina has 11 freshman and sophmores right now. 2008 is very likely UW's best shot at a title, and that is probably not the case in Arizona unless Buddinger stays longer than expected. If Jrue wants to win, he'll go to UW or Carolina, if he wants to showcase himself, he'll go to Arizona.

Brockman should be a Pac 10 player of the year and a Wooden award finalist. Pondexter will be fully filled out and experienced. We'll have 3 or 4 seniors and 3 juniors in the rotation. Romar will have an experienced team that can run, rebound and play D.

Assuming that Hawes will be in the NBA and both Isaiah Thomas and Darnell Gant get themselves eligible by this time, our current 2008 roster looks like this:

Seniors
PG - Justin Dentmon
PF - Jon Brockman
PF - Artem Wallace
SG - Joel Smith

Juniors
C - Joe Wolfinger
SF - Quincy Pondexter
SF - Phil Nelson
SG - Adrian Oliver

Sophomores
PF - Matthew Bryan-Amaning
SG - Justin Holiday
PG - Venoy Overton
SF/PF - Darnell Gant *

Freshman
SG/PG - Isaiah Thomas
SG - Elston Turner Jr.

* May be a freshman

That's 14 players, one over the scholarship limit. Here are a few things I could see happening:

60%: Joel Smith walks on.
Romar didn't want Smith to Redshirt this year because of the current scholarship situation. Smith may have made a deal to walk on in order to Red Shirt. Smith is from Lompoc, Ca, which is in a tiny town north of Santa Barbara that has an economy that relies heavily on Vandenberg Airforce Base.

45%: Wolfinger walks on or transfers. He hasn't played a game in two years and he's probably the lowest ranked recruit on the team. I can't really see him on the floor in 2008, given the other talent around him.

40%: Artem Wallace walks on
Wallace is going to have to show improvement next year. I don't know if he could walk on or not. I have no idea what his financial situation is.

33%: Pondexter goes pro after next season. He certainly is athletic enough, I think we'd have to see a fairly dramatic improvement over this year for this to be realistic. His dad, Roscoe played professionally overseas and his Uncle Cliff played in the NBA. Quincy will get good advice from his family and he has no immediate need for an NBA jackpot.

25%: Somebody is academically ineligible, transfers, or drops out. Wild and random speculation.

10%: Dentmon or Brockman walk on.
I don't think that Romar would ask Brockman to do this, but I could see Brockman deciding to be a hero to get Jrue on the team. Dentmon seems like an unlikely candidate to walk on, Carbondale is not the nicest town in the world...

0.01%: Brockman goes pro. I don't think that Brockman will be a high draft pick if he goes before his senior year. For a power forward, he's short and can't jump. Brockman has stated many times that he will be at UW for 4 years. I don't doubt him, but if he put up crazy numbers like 18 and 14 next year...

One of these things needs to happen just to get under the scholarship limit. Two would need to happen to get Jrue. I really hope we can bring him in. We'll likely lose at least 5 players after the 2008 season, possibly 6. Reloading on the fly is much better than having to start 3 freshman and 2 sophomores. Trust me...